The yield curve inverted in June 2022, and as we all know, the recession never came. When it flipped positive in 2024, ...

The U.S. Treasury yield curve, one of the most reliable signals of recession, is flashing red again. As of March 2025, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields remains inverted, a ...

Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

In last week's commentary we spoke about the big bounce of the S&P 500 (SPY) that got us back in the mix of all the key trend lines (50/100/200 day moving averages). And likely we would be stuck in a ...

An inverted yield curve, as its name suggests, occurs when shorter-term yields are higher than those of longer-term Treasurys, flipping the usual or “healthy” spread between short- and long-term ...

In 2022, the yield curve, which maps yields on U.S. Treasury bonds of different maturities, became inverted, meaning short-term Treasuries had higher yields than longer-dated ones. This inversion ...

Explore Treasury yield forecasts: 3‑month bills likely 1%–2%, curve inversion odds, negative-rate risk, and default dangers ...

Fears of a recession are back on investors’ minds. But predicting the onset of an economic downturn, let alone the length and severity of one, is difficult even for the experts. As a rule of thumb, ...